pursuit36000| Bad weather ignites a $25 billion market

　　马蒂·马利诺（Marty Malinow）pursuit36000的母亲永远无法理解儿子靠什么谋生。对朋友们pursuit36000，她说他是“一个与天气有关的股票经纪人”。Malinow不能完全反对——他知道大多数人对以阳光、降雨和风为基础的金融合约一无所知。

　　这种情况正在开始改变。在气候波动加剧和社会变化的背景下，对天气衍生品的需求正在飙升。芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的数据显示，2023年上市产品的平均交易量跃升了260%以上，目前未交割合约的数量比一年前高出48%。据业内人士估计，这种公开交易的角落可能只占所有交易活动的10%；未偿衍生品的名义价值可能高达250亿美元。

　　咨询公司Parameter Climate的创始人兼首席执行官马利诺说：“现在我们的业务有更多的发展轨迹。“直接的天气波动、供应链问题、通货膨胀和地缘政治加剧了脆弱性。这意味着现在天气可能会吞噬更大一部分利润。”

　　华尔街更为人所知的天气押注——巨灾债券，在经历了一年的丰厚回报后，也一路走高。但这种繁荣正在衍生品中发挥作用，衍生品提供了一种不同的对冲：保护人们免受不那么严重但更常见的气象现象的威胁。如果一场百年一遇的暴风雨袭击了一个社区，一只猫债券可能会赔付，而天气衍生品则可以在雨天过多的情况下补偿旅游业，或者在炎热的夏天导致庄稼受害时补偿农民。

　　为了应对市场对其上市衍生品（全部基于温度）需求的飙升，芝加哥商品交易所去年扩大了产品种类。现在，交易员和公司可以购买覆盖费城、休斯顿、波士顿、伯班克、巴黎和德国埃森的期权，此外还有覆盖芝加哥、纽约、伦敦和东京等地的既定合约。在8月份的首次亮相中，仅埃森就有5000个“每日热度”期权（与天气的寒冷程度挂钩）被交易。

　　Arbol Inc．的首席营收官斯科特·克莱姆（Scott Klemm）说：“我们正处于市场3pursuit36000.0版本。”该公司为希望对冲天气风险的公司设计产品。“我们现在的增长轨迹有更大的空间，有更大的上升空间。”

　　对冲风险

　　需求猛增的部分原因是，企业刚刚开始面对恶劣天气。在某些情况下，这是因为他们的业务已经受到了影响，在其他情况下，因为他们正在应对投资者和消费者的压力。在许多司法管辖区，监管机构开始迫使企业量化天气对其业务的威胁程度。

　　目前，多数大型欧洲上市公司都被要求披露它们认为来自环境因素的风险和机遇。在美国，证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission）今年3月敲定了一项规定，要求公司必须公布可能影响其业务中的气候相关风险信息，以及它们已采取的缓解措施。

　　市场中介机构BGC集团（BGC Group）负责气候衍生品业务的董事总经理尼古拉斯•恩斯特（Nicholas Ernst）表示：“所有这些公司都有天气风险，曾经，它们没有进行对冲，现在它们必须应对这种风险。”“我们正开始进入这个大得多的金融市场。”

　　SEC的计划仍是激烈辩论的主题，该监管机构面临的诉讼不仅来自挑战其对此类产品引入监管权力的团体，还来自那些认为这些规定不够严格的人。无论如何，投资者和其他利益相关者的期望意味着，企业识别和解决风险的压力越来越大。

　　阿尔博尔的克莱姆认为，企业要想以以往的方式解决这个问题，已经变得更加困难了。“有多少次我们读了收益报告或听了收益电话会议，公司的高管们说，‘你知道，这是一个非常潮湿的春天。它影响了我们的收益底线。然后耸耸肩，继续？他说。

　　马林诺称自己是市场上的“调剂师”，他是安然公司（Enron Corp．）——全球首批天气衍生品部门之一的早期员工。在超过四分之一个世纪的时间里，他帮助公司对冲大自然的风险，创建了各种合约，从寒冷的牛（颤抖会燃烧更多卡路里）、这可能意味着更少的肉）和海底电力电缆（当它们的连接点变暖时，它们不能很好地导电）以及火鸡的死亡率（鸟类如果太热就会死亡）。

　　但从历史上看，天气衍生品主要用于缓解能源公司因气温变化造成的需求波动。电力供应商面临着明显且可预见的风险：如果夏天比预期的要冷，人们就不会那么频繁地使用空调，而在温和的冬天，供暖需求可能会减弱。基于温度指数的期权可以帮助抵消对他们收入的任何影响。

　　例如，总部位于美国的家用供暖和空调产品供应商以及取暖油分销商Star Group LP就使用对冲工具来帮助减轻温暖天气对现金流的影响。根据该公司的财务报表，这些合同意味着，如果11月至3月期间的气温超过一定的阈值，该公司将获得高达1250万美元的收入。在最近的财政年度收到付款后，包括2023年的全额福利和2025年应付合同的最高付款额已上升至1500万美元。该公司拒绝置评。

　　能源公司也为当前的繁荣做出了贡献，尽管是出于新的原因。太阳能电池板、风力发电场和水力发电分别受阳光、风速和降雨量的支配，这意味着，随着生产商转向可再生能源，除了传统的消费波动之外，它们还面临新的供应方面的波动。

　　Arbol的Klemm表示：“这种间歇性，加上天然气市场的波动性，重新激活了天气衍生品领域。”Arbol最近在一轮融资中筹集了6000万美元，以帮助其扩张。

Malinow's company, Parameter Climate, works with companies that are keen to guard against such threats. These include energy suppliers with increasingly complex demand and companies that are considering weather hedging for the first time.

"there are other vertical sectors that also have potential weather risks, such as land and sea construction, agriculture and transportation," he said. " "there are a lot of companies that don't even know how to start dealing with risk, and as they come to realize it, it will contribute to future market growth."

The product of scientific and technological progress

Advances in meteorological science and technology are producing new and more sophisticated products. A classic weather trade may look like the one used by Star Group, but Syngenta, a multinational seed and pesticide maker, has found another way to deploy derivatives to make its products more attractive to farmers.

Under the AgriClime plan, Syngenta promises cash refunds of up to 30 per cent for some crops purchased by farmers if the natural environment does not provide suitable growth conditions. For example, when heavy rain threatens the barley harvest, growers will not be wiped out. This happened last season in the UK, when Syngenta said: "it paid 99 per cent of hybrid barley customers."

The plan is actually backed by derivatives. The specific structure of such contracts varies (call, put and swap options are common variants), but the buyer who bears the weather risk (such as Syngenta) usually pays a premium to the seller who bears the risk. and promise to pay if certain weather indicators are met. Insurance companies, and sometimes hedge funds or other investment firms, are usually on the other side of the deal.

Syngenta says the project has been a great success. According to Peter Steiner (Peter Steiner), the company's global head of weather and credit risk management, services currently provided by AgriClime cover a range of crops on more than 50, 000 farms in 17 countries.

"in many countries and regions, the climate has become more unstable and weather risks have become more difficult," he said. Syngenta Agriculture has shown that derivatives can not only effectively hedge corporate balance sheets, but also protect multiple individual end users with the right technology and processes. "

Questions that persist to this day

The growth of the weather market is likely to reignite the unanswered question of moral hazard: will mitigating the financial impact of weather on companies reduce their incentive to address man-made climate change? As one academic wrote in 2014, this "may increase the negative impact of the behaviour of those who benefit from these markets at the expense of the majority, especially those most vulnerable to climate change."

In contrast, industry insiders insist that this is a positive factor, noting that the market plays a key role in helping to finance renewable energy projects and protecting communities from climate challenges. "We can ease the pain caused by these large-scale global problems," said Dave Whitehead, co-chief executive of Speedwell Climate. The company provides detailed weather data for many weather transactions. "We are not solving the problem, we are creating a situation in which the government can fund reconstruction projects in the event of a disaster."

So far, more practical concerns have hampered the growth of weather transactions, and the industry has been hit hard during the financial crisis. The nominal value of the weather derivatives market has fallen by 50 per cent as risk takers withdraw from positions that are stranger and harder to hedge, according to a study.

Weather derivatives are also very specific-usually customized contracts based on local risks-and tend to be short-term. This severely restricts trading activity in the secondary market. There is also "basis risk", which refers to the effectiveness of derivatives as hedging instruments. In the case of a weather market, the basis risk may exist in the geographical location (if the measurement point of the contract is not close enough to the place where protection is sought), the timing of the entry into force of the contract, and the fact that the content of compensation has nothing to do with the actual economic impact.

Despite the challenges, market participants remain optimistic.

Maria Rapin, CEO of Nephila Climate, oversees an investment strategy that directs money to companies and institutions that face greater financial risks due to weather fluctuations. Rapin says that 20 years ago, when she talked about working for a large insurance company, people's eyes glazed over because her job was to build catastrophe bonds to help shift weather risks.

"now people will say, 'Wow, you are the center of everything.'" She said.