naysbaits| On the day of the lifting of the ban, all 11 institutions suffered losses! The stock price of this brokerage firm is performing poorly, and its fixed income this year is not good

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The winning rate of fixed increase and lifting of ban is not high.

May 17 Guohai Securities 3Naysbaits52 million additional restricted shares can be listed and circulated. As the only securities company that successfully implemented the fixed increase last year, its performance in lifting the ban has attracted the attention of all parties in the market.

On that day, both the highest intraday price and the final closing price were lower than the fixed issue price.Naysbaits.39 yuan per share, 11 institutional investors are "floating losses". Data show that Guohai Securities has two bulk transactions, both from institutional seats, with a total turnover of 17.5218 million yuan and a transaction price of 3.30 yuan per share.

As the lifting day of Guohai Securities is in the stage of stock price correction, the earnings of institutional investors are not good. In the first quarter of this year, the share price of Guohai Securities rose all the way to around 3.6 yuan per share, then tumbled, rebounding to around 3.4 yuan per share at the end of April and falling below the issue price again after the pullback.

However, from the perspective of the fixed growth market, the overall rate of return for lifting the ban is not high. Of the 102 listed companies that implemented the fixed increase last year and lifted the ban this year, 75% of the listed companies' closing prices fell below the offering price on the day of lifting the ban, according to Chinese journalists at brokerages.

Floating losses on the first day of lifting the ban

On May 17, some additional shares of Guohai Securities ushered in the day of lifting the ban. According to the previous announcement of Guohai Securities, the total number of restricted shares that can be listed and circulated this time is 352 million shares, accounting for 5.51% of the company's total shares.

A total of 11 institutional investors are involved in the lifting of the ban, of which 3 are securities firms, namely Guotai Junan Securities, Hua'an Securities and Guangfa Securities.NaysbaitsThere are three fund companies, namely Nord Fund, Caitong Fund and Xingzheng Global Fund, two foreign-funded institutions, UBS and Morgan Stanley, and three local industrial capitals in Guangxi, namely Guangxi Beigang Financial Control Investment Co., Ltd., Guangxi Land Reclamation Industry Investment Development Center (limited partnership) and Guangxi Modern Logistics Group Co., Ltd.

Among them, the subscription amount of Guotai Junan is the largest among the above institutional investors, nearly 310 million yuan; the subscription amount of Nord Fund and Caitong Fund is 252 million yuan and 125 million yuan respectively. In addition, Huaan Securities and three local industrial capital in Guangxi have subscribed for nearly 100 million yuan.

Judging from the stock price performance on the first day of lifting the ban, the above 11 institutional investors all showed "floating losses" on their books. On that day, the highest intraday price of Guohai Securities was 3.32 yuan per share, and the closing price was 3.30 yuan per share, both lower than the fixed issue price of 3.39 yuan per share.

A Chinese reporter from the brokerage noted that on May 17, Guohai Securities had two block transactions from institutional seats, with a total turnover of 5.3097 million shares, with a total turnover of 17.5218 million yuan per share, accounting for 6.99 percent of the day's total turnover.

The depressed share price of Guohai Securities is roughly consistent with the stock price performance of the industry as a whole. Since the second half of 2023, brokerage stocks have continued to fluctuate downwards, although there was a rebound at the beginning of this year and a rebound in late April, but it did not completely reverse the decline.

As a matter of fact, it was quite difficult for Guohai Securities to issue additional shares last year, and the timing of the issuance was not ideal until the expiration of the fixed additional approval document. The issuance process of Guohai Securities is also very difficult, the underwriters add two rounds of subscription to complete, of which the second round can be understood as relying solely on the brokerage peers to "save the market". Guohai Securities finally raised 3.192 billion yuan, 70% more than the initial fund-raising plan, of which 2 billion yuan was subscribed by Guangxi Investment Group, the controlling shareholder of Guohai Securities.

A Chinese reporter from the brokerage noted that at the 2023 results presentation held by Guohai Securities in late March this year, investors frequently asked questions about "stock price boosting plans" and "measures to improve investment returns".

At that time, people related to Guohai Securities responded that the company had paid dividends for 12 consecutive years and distributed a cumulative profit of 4.661 billion yuan to shareholders, including 3.167 billion yuan in cash dividends. The proposed cash dividend in 2023 is 255 million yuan, accounting for 135.22% of the company's distributable profits in 2023, and the proportion of cash distribution is higher than the average level of the industry in the past.

"the valuation of the stock secondary market is affected by many factors, and the company will, as always, strive to do a good job in operation and management and create better performance to give back to shareholders." The relevant people explained this at the press conference.

The performance of fixed increase earnings is dragged down.

The poor income of Guohai Securities is only the epitome of the current fixed increase market. Chinese reporters from brokerages have found that most of the gains from the lifting of the ban this year are not very satisfactory.

Of the 102 listed companies that implemented a fixed increase last year and lifted the ban this year, 76 of the first batch of restricted shares closed below the offering price, accounting for 75 per cent, according to Chinese brokerage journalists' statistics on Wind data.

Further, as many as 34 listed companies have added restricted shares and the closing price on the day of lifting the ban has fallen by more than 20% compared with the offering price.

When reviewing the fixed increase market in the first quarter of this year, analysts from the fixed increase research team of Shen Wanhongyuan Securities said that if sold at the closing price on the date of lifting the ban, 18.84% of the 69 bidding items lifted in the first quarter of 2024 had a positive absolute rate of return, and the average absolute rate of return for lifting the ban in the first quarter was-12.59%. The analyst said that the disassembly of first-quarter earnings, the market price discount effect is still significant, but individual stocks and industry performance since the third quarter of last year continued to decline, dragging down the performance of fixed earnings.

Looking forward to the second quarter, the analyst said that most of the projects that will be lifted in the second quarter will be released between the second half of last year and the beginning of this year, and the bright performance of the recovery in some industries can be expected.

Of the listed companies that have implemented fixed growth but have not yet lifted the ban since last year, 62 share prices have fallen below the offering price this year (as of May 17), accounting for 33 per cent of the listed companies that have not been lifted, according to Chinese journalists at the brokerage.

In the next two weeks of this month, six listed companies will usher in the lifting of the ban on the sale of restricted shares, namely, Pu Tailai, Hagrid Communications, Guangxin Materials, China porcelain Electronics, Gan Consulting, and Yihualu, but four of them have been "broken". Many companies' closing prices on May 17 have fallen by more than 20% compared with their offering prices, and some have fallen by about 10%. The above listed companies will continue to pay attention to the income of the first batch of additional restricted shares in the future.

Editor: Gui Yanmin