jili777comph|金价跌惨了！跌回“5字头”，消费者还要“冲”吗？

Recently, there has been a sharp correction in the price of gold after rising all the way. Do consumers still dare to "rush"Jili777comph?

The price of gold has fallen badly!

Many brands return to the "five prefixes"

There used to be a lot of traffic in front of the gold store during the May Day holiday! The turnover is about 2 to 3 times that of the usual, and most of the demand comes from marriage, and part of it comes from pleasing to oneself.

International gold prices have fallen, and domestic gold prices have also fallen significantly. The latest quotation on May 5 shows that the listing prices of many domestic gold stores have fallen to less than 700 yuan / g. The May Day short holiday is the peak season for traditional gold consumption, and many businesses have launched holiday discount activities one after another, but in the face of fluctuating high-price gold, many consumers have become hesitant and their wait-and-see mood has thickened, and some businessmen have even said that I have been working for 20 years. May Day this year is the weakest May Day holiday. In the first three days of May Day, the weakest day only did more than 20,000 yuan of business, compared with at least 50,000 yuan in the past.

It is worth noting that a number of brands of gold, including Zhou Dasheng (002867) and China Gold, are now offering prices back to the "5 era". "there is a discount of 100 yuan per gram during the holiday and 599 yuan per gram after the discount, with additional cost.

Jewelry consumption has been curbed

The truth behind it is exposed!

On April 26, the China Gold Association released the latest statistics showing that in the first quarter of 2024, the national gold consumption was 308.Jili777comph.905 tons, an increase of 5.94 percent over the same period in 2023. Of this total, gold jewelry was 183.922 tons, down 3 percent from the same period last year; gold bars and coins were 106.323 tons, up 26.77 percent from the same period last year.

As can be seen from the data, the rapidly rising gold price, superimposed gold jewelry processing fees and high brand premium and other factors, increased consumer wait-and-see mood, so that gold jewelry consumption has been restrained to a certain extent. On the other hand, due to the surge in risk aversion demand, physical gold investment has received higher attention, and consumption of gold bars and coins with relatively low premiums has risen sharply.

The underlying reason behind the fall in gold is that the latest US non-farm payrolls data for April fell far short of expectations, raising market expectations of a Fed rate cut this year. However, due to signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and profitable shipments by some investors, international gold prices fluctuated sharply, falling to a new low in nearly a month. June gold futures, the most actively traded by New Zealand merchants, fell 0.04 per cent to $2308.60 / oz, down 1.64 per cent this week.

Prices fell rapidly.

Can you still "rush"?

Although the price has fallen somewhat, it is still at an all-time high. Is it still worth "rushing"?

In the short term, gold may continue to be under upward pressure from a strong dollar and US bond yields, but it still has upward momentum in the medium to long term. Institutions said that the short-term volatility of gold prices has increased, and the attitude towards gold's short-term marginal adjustment tendency remains unchanged, but investors should pay more attention during the adjustment period, which may be a better chance to re-enter the market throughout the year.

If the subsequent macro evolution does develop towards re-inflation, the high bond interest payments and fiscal deficit in the United States, as well as the gradual consumption of the US liquidity safety pad, mean that the Fed has limited room for further tightening. Real interest rates, which are highly negatively related to gold assets, will really expand the downward space, and gold trading odds will increase significantly. It is suggested that investors should actively pay attention to the emergence of intervention opportunities after the subsequent price fall.

According to Morgan Stanley fund managers, the core influencing factor of gold is the medium-and long-term real interest rates in the United States. After the Fed raised interest rates at its peak, the periodic decline in interest rates on 10-year US Treasuries catalyzed the start of gold prices. The escalation of the geo-conflict in April further promoted the price of gold to rise, and the risk aversion attribute of gold became a short-term influencing factor, which has greater uncertainty. As a result, gold prices have fallen back from new highs after the situation has eased slightly. In the medium to long term, concerns about the weakening of US dollar credit and the continued gold purchases by central banks in recent years support the price of gold.

Tianhong fund managers said that central banks continued to buy gold, pushing the price of gold above the previous threshold, which led some wait-and-see investors or trend traders to chase higher. But what is different from the past is that the recent rise in gold prices and the rise in real interest rates are actually not in line with the law of history, showing non-fundamental trading factors. The central bank's gold-buying behavior has a certain persistence, but the trend of rising and short stop-loss behavior may not be sustained. In the future, the gold price may have a large adjustment or shock after the current level or short-term rise. Asset volatility will increase, and risk-averse investors need to think carefully about affordability.

Therefore, the investment and consumption of gold at this high price should pay attention to diversifying the investment risk, and the maintenance and appreciation of physical gold is not easy to realize, so it is necessary to have certain expectations.