petmasterfreespinsandcoins| Polypropylene: Low innovation market support
Zhuochuang Information PP analyst: Yang Juan, Xiang Xinyan
[introduction]: although the demand for polypropylene in China was poor in April,PetmasterfreespinsandcoinsHowever, under the obvious support of the cost side and the supply side, the center of gravity of the market is rising slowly. In particular, the supply side coincides with the concentrated season of PP plant overhaul. according to Zhuochuang information statistics, the monthly start-up load rate of polypropylene in China broke through an all-time low in April, further supporting the market.
The start-up load rate is a new low and the supply side support is obvious.
In 2024, the start-up load rate of domestic PP production enterprises mostly remained at a relatively low level of 78%, while the monthly start-up load rate of PP in April was only 75%.Petmasterfreespinsandcoins.39%, which is the lowest in history since the statistics of Zhuangchuang Information. In terms of production, according to Zhuochuang information statistics, domestic PP production in April was 2.6985 million tons, 6.60% lower than in March, alleviating the pressure on the supply side to a certain extent and supporting the market obviously.
In April, the start-up load rate of domestic PP is low, on the one hand, because of seasonal maintenance, it is the usual centralized maintenance season for PP devices from April to May every year. On the other hand, under the influence of high cost and relatively weak demand, unplanned parking and load reduction devices are further increased. In particular, in April, it accepted the pressure brought by the high operation of raw materials, while under the influence of shrinking overseas orders and cautious domestic demand, it was difficult to support the demand side, and there was a significant increase in unplanned parking by enterprises. the above two points are the main reasons for the further decline in construction in April.
The concentration of maintenance equipment has alleviated the domestic supply pressure, and also caused the supply side of some markets to show a structural tight situation, especially the relatively tight situation of wire drawing and low-melting copolymerization in North China, East China, South China and other regions, which makes the market support obvious.
The market center of gravity in the game of supply and demand rises slowly.
The relatively low start-up load rate makes the support of the market from the supply side obvious, even under the influence of relatively weak demand, the market can still get support, and the overall center of gravity moves up slowly.
After the domestic PP market shock rose in April, the price center of gravity moved slightly higher than the previous month. In April, the average price of PP wire drawing in East China was 7566.25 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from the previous month and down 0.39% from the same period last year. On the whole, although the price moved up in April from the previous month, the increase was relatively limited, and the overall price operation situation of PP was still at a low level in the past six years. Although the support from the supply side to the market is strong, the demand is relatively weak, which hinders the upward trend of the market and limits the increase.
There is no market pressure on seasonal demand.
Weak demand was the main reason for the limited growth of PP in April. Although the export of PP products improved in April, it has a significant impact on the overall PP consumption because of its limited share in consumption. In April, the performance of domestic demand was poor, the current situation of high inventory of downstream finished products and profit deviation was difficult to be significantly improved, while suppressing the downward adjustment of downstream start-up load, the downstream was not willing to buy the current high-priced resources, and the volume transaction was still limited.
Also affected by meagre profits, the procurement in the lower reaches before May Day is limited, the holiday intensity of factories in the middle and lower reaches of the festival is significantly stronger than the same period last year, and the inventory of raw materials in the downstream factories is low after the festival, but the cautious replenishment is still in conflict with high-priced resources. It is reported that as of May 11, some factories have not been opened because of orders, profits and other problems. Short-term demand is difficult to release obviously, and it is difficult to support the PP market. In May, demand gradually entered the off-season, and demand is expected to shrink further, weakening support for the market.
The supply of new equipment and maintenance game increases slightly.
In the later stage, although the maintenance equipment is still relatively concentrated, the new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, in early May, 450000 tons of PP plant in Quanzhou Guoheng Phase I was put into operation, while 450000 tons of PP plant in Qingdao Jinneng Phase II was planned to be launched in mid-May, while 150000 tons of new materials in Huizhou Lituo, and 150000 tons of PP plant in Anhui Tianda are scheduled to be put into operation in May, and the market has a greater impact from the new capacity.
In terms of plant maintenance, due to the planned restart of some maintenance devices, the overall maintenance intensity of the device has been slightly weakened, and it is initially estimated that the loss of PP maintenance next month will be 562600 tons, a decrease of 8.73% compared with the previous month. On the whole, although the supply is expected to increase slightly in May and the support from the supply side of the market has weakened, it is still in the centralized maintenance season of the plant in May, and the overhaul of the device may support the phased market.
Statistics on the shutdown or overhaul of polypropylene plants in China in May 2024
Petrochemical name
Parking capacity (10,000 tons / year)
Parking reason
Parking Duration
departure time
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry
Line 20
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 6
Plan for May 25
Anqing Petrochemical
thirty
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 8
Plan to last for 30 days.
Pucheng clean energy
forty
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 8
Expected to last half a month.
Datang Duolun
Line 23
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 8
Plan to last for 25 days.
Datang Duolun
Second line 23
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 8
Plan to last for 25 days.
Prolong elm energy
3PP 40
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 9
Plan for June 9
Dushanzi petrification
The old front line 7
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 10th
Plan to last for 60 days.
Wanhua chemistry
thirty
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 10th
The plan lasts for 15 days.
Dushanzi petrification
The second line 7
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 11th
Plan to last for 60 days.
Dushanzi petrification
New frontline 30
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 13
The plan will last for 2 months.
Dushanzi petrification
New second line 25
Planned maintenance
Plan for May 13
The plan will last for 2 months.
Hebei Haiwei
thirty
Planned maintenance
It is planned for late May
The plan lasts for 15 days.
Taken together, despite the poor demand performance in April, the market center of gravity rose on the back of significant supply-side contraction and high costs. But in the later stage, although the maintenance equipment is concentrated in May, the new production capacity is impacted, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to increase. At the same time, on the demand side, the strength of the holiday in the lower reaches of May is obviously stronger than that of the same period last year, and the demand is gradually entering the off-season in the later period, and the demand is expected to weaken further. Overall, under the supply-demand game, the support found in the supply side of the polypropylene market weakened in May, and the market center of gravity may shift downward under the suppression of demand.