congobongo| Fasten your seat belt! Two stocks were closed at a daily limit, Zijin Mining hit another record high, and the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) surged by 4%! Why is it soaring? Can the rally continue?

Since the launch of the current market on February 6, the rising trend of non-ferrous metals has been wave after wave.Congobongo!

Today, the non-ferrous metals industry leader ETF (159876) remained high throughout the day, with intraday prices rising 4.42% and closing up 3.99%! Prices broke through the highest level since April 21, 2023, and the turnover surged 2.5 times over the previous trading day.

Core heavyweight Zijin Mining shares hit an all-time high (19Congobongo.79 yuan), up 3.67% throughout the day; Sichuan gold and silver non-ferrous trading board, Xingye silver and tin trading hit the limit many times, closing up 9.35%.

In terms of funds, today's main funds are most favored by non-ferrous metals plates, with a net inflow of 5.987 billion yuan throughout the day, ranking first in 31 emergency-level industries.

On the face of the news, today's international + domestic non-ferrous metals are rising crazily! Internationally, COMEX gold (US $2454.2 / oz) and LME copper (US $11104.5 / ton) have reached new highs; domestic non-ferrous metal futures rose sharply across the board, Shanghai silver main contract rose by the limit, and Shanghai nickel main contract rose 6% in the day.

The rise in global non-ferrous metal prices may be catalyzed by the following three factors:

1. The re-emergence of geo-risk in the Middle East pushes up the price of precious metals

The situation in the Middle East is becoming more and more complicated. recently, Israel attacked eastern Rafah, cease-fire negotiations ended in vain, superimposed helicopter "hard landing" accident, geopolitical conflict fermented again, and the demand for precious metals such as gold and silver as safe havens continued to rise.

2. The growth rate of inflation in the United States has slowed down, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has risen.

Us CPI rose 0.3 per cent month-on-month in April, below market expectations of 0.4 per cent. Us inflation slowed, boosting Fed interest rate cut expectations, and the US dollar weakened and gold soared.

3. COMEX copper futures + tight copper supply + favorable real estate policy in China, copper price is expected to remain high

Driven by overseas COMEX copper futures market, copper prices have risen sharply; on the supply and demand level, copper supply is tight; superimposed, China has introduced a number of real estate stimulus policies, which are expected to stimulate cyclical macro-economic recovery, increase demand for related industrial metals, and copper prices are expected to remain high.

What do you think of the future? Institutions have come up with their views:

Guohai Securities believes that the current copper trading is a revaluation of resources in the context of the global economic recovery, which is expected to open a new round of main rising waves.

Minmetals Futures said that if you seize the main contradiction of weaker US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy turning to marginal easing this year, the market for precious metals such as gold should be bullish.

Societe Generale Securities pointed out that at present, the rise in gold prices is not only affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts, but more importantly, under the background of challenges to the monetary credit system centered on the US dollar, the demand for precious metals such as gold continues to rise as assets, and major central banks continue to buy gold to push up gold prices. At present, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates again, and when gold prices rise, they are optimistic about the future market of non-ferrous metals.

According to public data, according to the caliber of Shenwan's third-tier industry, copper, aluminum and gold are the top three major industries in the CSI non-ferrous metals index tracked by ETF (159876), accounting for 24.1%, 16.7% and 14.7% respectively, accounting for more than 50%. It is expected to benefit from the rally in gold, as well as from the commodity rally cycle.

Sources of data and charts: Wind, Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, Warburg Fund, etc.

Note: the rise and fall of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index in the past five complete years is: 2019, 24.48%; 2020, 35.84%; 2021, 35.89%; 2022,-19.22%; 2023,-10.43%.

Risk tip: non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) passively track the CSI non-ferrous metals index (930708.CSI), the index base date is 2013.12.31, the release date is 2015.7.13, the composition of index stocks is timely adjusted according to the rules of the index, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. In this article, the index stocks are only shown, and the individual stocks are not described as any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of the fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors, the appropriate matching opinions should be based on the sales organization. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any point of view, analysis and forecast in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor is it liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by fund managers does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance, so fund investment should be cautious.