1slotph| Zhuochuang Information: International crude oil shocks and falls, refined oil products have a strong probability of "two consecutive losses"
(oil products: Zheng Mingya)
Background: since this pricing cycle, international crude oil has shown a volatile downward trend. Affected by this, the domestic reference rate of change of crude oil continues to operate in the negative range. By the close of May 13, the domestic reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day was-4.1slotph.81%, the probability of lowering the retail price limit of refined oil products is on the high side.
Zhuochuang Information View: in this pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil begins with a negative value. During the cycle, comments by US central bank officials suggested that US dollar interest rates would rise for a long time, which could hinder demand from the world's largest crude oil consumer and news such as the United States once again starting to replenish strategic oil reserves. While concerned about the prospect of improved demand, OPEC may delay production cuts, a possible decline in Canadian oil sands production and a year-on-year increase in Chinese crude oil imports mean an increase in demand, and other positive factors support the international crude oil market. Under the long-short game, the crude oil futures prices in Europe and the United States show a fluctuating and downward trend. As a result, the domestic reference rate of change of crude oil in the negative range of shock deepened, so that the retail price limit of refined oil "two consecutive falls" is expected to increase. Zhuo Chuang Information data calculation, as of the close on May 13, the domestic 9th working day reference rate of change of crude oil-4.81%, gasoline and diesel is expected to be reduced by 210 yuan / ton, the price adjustment window at 24:00 on May 15. According to the current forecast range, after the current round of retail price limit for refined oil is lowered, the price of diesel oil will be reduced by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan and 0.18 yuan respectively. In terms of consumer travel, according to a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a box of 9L gasoline will cost 8 yuan less.
There is only one working day left before the price adjustment. Zhuochuang Information is expected to, except1slotphIn addition to paying attention to the supply, demand and inventory data of the three major monthly reports, it is reported that OPEC + may extend the production reduction agreement into the second half of the year, the relative tension on the supply side and the upcoming summer demand peak in the United States, several positive factors will jointly support and boost the strong operation of oil prices. However, it is difficult to reverse the rate of change of crude oil to continue to operate at a low negative value, and the probability of lowering the retail price limit of refined oil products is on the high side. According to statistics, if the current round of oil price reduction can hit the ground, the domestic retail price limit has been adjusted 10 times since 2024, of which 5 times have been raised, 3 times lowered and 2 times stranded.
