miniarcade| Backward production capacity accelerates to clear out. Will the profits of the photovoltaic industry bottom out and rebound?
Our reporter Yin Gaofeng
The price of polysilicon continues to decline. The latest weekly prices released by the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "Silicon Branch") on May 15.MiniarcadeThe average transaction price of N-type rod silicon decreased by 5. 5% compared with the previous month.Miniarcade.08%; the average transaction price of P-type compact material decreased by 4% from the previous month.Miniarcade.36%; the average transaction price of N-type granular silicon decreased by 6.25% compared with the previous month.
"not only the polysilicon link, but most of the links of the photovoltaic industry chain have fallen below the cost price, and the entire photovoltaic industry chain has reachedMiniarcadeAfter competing with the stage of competitiveness such as cost, technology, cash flow and so on, it will be difficult for enterprises without the above advantages to maintain, and the production capacity with high costs and backward technology will be cleared faster. " Wanlian Securities Investment consultant qu Fang said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily.
As for the performance of the photovoltaic market during the year, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Green Energy, said that the company always believes that the long-term trend of the development of the photovoltaic industry has not changed, and that there is still huge room for technological progress and application development in the industry. The photovoltaic industry will continue to move forward in the process of solving problems.
Accelerate clearance of backward production capacity
"since 2023, the price of the main photovoltaic industry chain has declined rapidly, which has had a great impact on the profits of photovoltaic enterprises, and some enterprises have even made losses, which means that the profits of the whole photovoltaic industry chain may have bottomed out." Flexion analysis said.
The Silicon Industry Branch said that the current silicon price has exceeded the cash cost of all production enterprises, and under the pressure of high inventory, some small and old production capacity have been stopped for maintenance.
Not only the silicon link, but also other links of the photovoltaic industry chain continue to come to stop production or reduce production news.
On May 15, ST Landa disclosed that the company's subsidiary Jinzhai Jiayue New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jinzhai Jiayue") the main production equipment continued to stop production. The company disclosed in the performance presentation held on May 10 that the current paper funds do not support Jinzhai Jiayue to resume production or upgrade the production line.
"at present, the technical iteration of photovoltaic cells is the focus of the development of the industry, in the current situation, backward technology and production capacity will accelerate the elimination." Qu Fang said.
Ai Neng Ju previously announced that due to the influence of technology iteration and market demand, in order to reduce the company's losses and consider from the perspective of the company's overall operating performance, the company's management decided that the company's polysilicon battery production line would officially stop production, and the follow-up resumption time would depend on the order situation.
"for practitioners in the photovoltaic industry, especially those who make battery modules, the risk is very high." Zhong Baoshen said that the iteration speed of photovoltaic cell technology is very fast, and if you accidentally make a heavy asset investment, and the technology is eliminated, it will face great risks.
"in the current situation, the help of the policy side and the force of marketization will jointly promote the clearance of backward production capacity." Qu Fang predicts that with the landing of policies and the recovery of market demand, the industry will gradually return to the track of healthy development. Photovoltaic industry after many rounds of production capacity clear, June may usher in the industry adjustment "bottom", the price of the industrial chain is expected to return to rationality. Under the logic of the long-term improvement of the photovoltaic industry, the profits of the industrial chain are expected to be repaired gradually.
It is worth noting that in the first quarter of this year, despite the overall decline in the performance of photovoltaic listed companies, the installed scale of photovoltaic still maintained a high growth. According to the National Energy Administration, domestic photovoltaic installed 45.74GW increased by 36% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year. According to the Oriental Securities Research report, looking forward to 2024, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to 462GW, a year-on-year growth of about 15%.
Technological "Competition" promotes the Progress of the Industry
A number of interviewees believe that from the perspective of the development of the photovoltaic industry, it is currently in the stage of technological upgrading and next-generation technology accumulation, and enterprises with technological advantages will have more competitive advantages in the future.
"under the severe challenge of counter-cycle, enterprises are invincible only through innovation, and R & D is the most important link. In the first quarter of this year, the company's R & D investment was at a high level in the same period, strongly protecting the continuous improvement of the quality of granular silicon and scientific research breakthroughs in high-tech core businesses such as perovskite, CCz and silane. " Xiexin science and technology operations director told the Securities Daily.
From the point of view of the industry, innovation is the key to the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, and the intensification of competition in the industry urges enterprises to strengthen technological innovation. Improving the conversion efficiency and reducing the kilowatt-hour cost is the constant theme of the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry.
The above-mentioned person in charge of Xiexin Technology said that under the background of increasingly fierce competition in the photovoltaic industry chain and greater impact and squeeze on market prices, the company's profitability and profit margins have been affected to a certain extent, but this will force granular silicon to continue to rely on science and technology and innovation to continuously raise the upper limit of product quality and reduce the lower limit of cost, and then temper the endurance and tension of granular silicon counterattack market.
"there are many technological steps of BC technology, and the requirements of machining precision and process precision are also very high. In the highly competitive state of the photovoltaic industry, making long-term planning and investment is actually a great test for enterprises." For Longji Green Energy's current main BC battery technology, Zhong Baoshen said that Longji Green Energy has invested a total of 7 years in BC technology, has invested more than 1 billion yuan in research and development costs, and applied for 120 invention patents.
"reducing costs and increasing efficiency is the main theme of the development of the photovoltaic industry. Although the prices of the current industrial chain continue to decline, many leading enterprises in the industrial chain are still actively carrying out 'competition' in technology, which will continue to promote the progress of the photovoltaic industry." Qu Fang said that at the same time, with the promotion of superimposed intelligent manufacturing and automated production lines, the production efficiency and quality of photovoltaic products are also improving, and the photovoltaic industry will be more refined in reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the future.