jiligamecom| Good policies are launched on multiple fronts and risk appetite in the A-share market has been strongly boosted
◎ reporter Wang Youruo
Last week, the overall performance of the A-share market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index holding steady at 3100 points and closing at 3154 on Friday.Jiligamecom. 03:00 . In terms of the industry, benefiting from the intensive introduction of the new real estate policy, the volume of the relevant sectors of the real estate chain has risen sharply.
The institutional point of view shows that A shares and Hong Kong stocks have continued to strengthen since May, mainly reflecting the domestic demand for "promoting reform and expansion" from both domestic and foreign investors.JiligamecomOptimistic expectations. After the introduction of the new real estate policy package last week, it once again opened up the space for local cities to implement policies. The new policy is not only conducive to releasing part of the demand, but more importantly, it clearly defines the policy signal of "resolving risks in the real estate sector." The subsequent landing of supporting policies in various parts of the property market will help to support investors' risk appetite and drive the equity market to fluctuate upward.
From investment orientation to price stabilization orientation
Citic Securities said that the recent real estate sector macro-policy multi-line development, policy objectives from investment-oriented to price-oriented. With the release of demand from financial support and purchase restrictions, house prices in core cities are expected to stabilize in the middle of the year, while with the policy relay of stock housing digestion, the predicament of the real estate industry will gradually improve. Citic Securities believes thatJiligamecom:
First of all, on May 17, the real estate sector ushered in a number of supportive policies one after another. Departments such as the people's Bank of China, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development worked together to launch an unprecedented policy "combination punch". Significantly exceeded market expectations.
Second, the current round of real estate policy guidance has changed. The meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30 put forward the "overall study of policies and measures for digesting stock real estate and optimizing incremental housing", emphasizing the digestion of stock housing inventory rather than increasing supply and expanding investment. this is an important signal from investment-oriented to price-stable.
Finally, the recent real estate policy has entered a period of intensive landing. Since May, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Shenzhen and other cities have successively introduced optimized purchase restrictions, and the "trade-in" policy of local housing has been continuously promoted.
Huatai Securities said that at present, the real estate market is a more important "rebalancing" force, is the market's own supply and demand and price adjustment, clearing process. Given that the current real estate deleveraging cycle may have entered the second half, the marginal effect of this round of policy "combined punch" is expected to be better than previous rounds.
Zheshang Securities Strategy team said that the recent intensive catalysis of real estate policies, on the one hand, helps to correct market concerns about systemic risks in real estate, and the other is to further strengthen expectations of economic improvement. In this context, the marginal A-share market is expected to rise, strengthening the slow bull pattern since 2024.
Accelerated repair of macro and micro fundamentals
At the same time, Citic Securities believes that foreign capital continues to flow back and is more optimistic about Chinese assets, the new "National Nine articles" has gradually improved the market ecology, optimism among all kinds of investors will continue to accumulate, and the A-share market is expected to continue to rise steadily.
Haitong Securities prompt that in addition to real estate policies, there are a series of stable growth stock policies are being implemented. For example, recently, policies such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the replacement of consumer goods have been falling to the ground, and the repair of macro and micro fundamentals has been accelerated.
With the implementation of the stable growth stock policy and the gradual introduction of the incremental policy, the superimposed inventory cycle has entered the replenishment stage. Haitong Securities expects that the domestic actual GDP growth rate in 2024 is expected to reach about 5% compared with the same period last year; at the micro-enterprise profit level, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of all A-share homing net profits in 2024 is expected to reach 5% to 8%.
Bank of China International Securities said that in the medium term, this round of real estate policy is not the end, follow-up according to the slope of economic repair, macro policy still has a lot of room to release. With reference to the experience of 2016, at the beginning of the release of the supply-side structural reform policy, the equity market was still hesitant about the strength of the relevant policy. However, since then, with the continuous verification of the relevant meso data, the reversal trend at the bottom of the market has been gradually established, and the upward slope has finally begun to accelerate, so the medium-term upside space of this round of market is still worth looking forward to.
Pay attention to the related varieties of real estate chain in the short term
In terms of specific allocation, CITIC Securities recommends that investors continue to focus on the three main lines of high-performing growth stocks, low-wave dividend themes and active theme themes, reduce rotational trading games, and focus on the varieties that intersect with the real estate chain in the short term.
In terms of high-performing growth stocks, in view of the significant transformation and upgrading trend of A-share profit structure, CITIC Securities recommends that investors focus on the banking sector where asset quality is expected to improve and open room for revaluation. pay attention to construction machinery, home appliances, basic chemicals, consumer electronics and other manufacturing leaders, as well as the pharmaceutical sector that has bottomed out and stabilized the industrial cycle.
In terms of low-wave dividends, the agency recommends that dividend varieties focus more on the stability of cash returns and appropriately avoid industries with significant cyclical fluctuations in earnings. In terms of active themes, under the background of rising expectations of reform, increasing liquidity on the market, and rising risk appetite of investors, themes such as low-altitude economy, AI industrialization and biological manufacturing are expected to remain high.
Shen Wanhongyuan Securities advises investors to continue to pay attention to the direction of long-term economic inflection points in the manufacturing industry. For example, the medium-term supply and demand pattern of the new energy vehicle battery industry chain is further improving. In addition, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities continues to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in the direction of high dividends, and believes that after the short-term rotation of high-cut and low-cut plates and the repair of microstructure contradictions, it is a high probability event for the market main line to return to the broad sense of high-dividend investment.
Huachuang Securities believes that the upward fundamentals of the real estate industry may have a certain impact on the short-term market style. Looking back on the historical experience, in the rapidly rising market range of real estate stock prices, most of the market style shows that the market value stocks take the lead, followed by the transition to the dominant state of small-cap growth stocks.