videopoker10play| Soyoil market fluctuated and rose: South American production was lowered, futures prices deviated from spot prices, and the basis fell
Newsletter summary
The domestic oil market showed a fluctuating upward trend last week.Videopoker10playSoybean oil led the rise. South American soybean production has been reduced, and the sowing progress of American beans has been slow. Malay palm oil futures rose and exports fell. The domestic oil base gap continues to decline, and the market supply exceeds demand. With a large number of soybean arrivals in Hong Kong from May to July, the futures price may continue to rise, and the basis may be further reduced. Investors should wait and see carefully and reasonably supplement rigid demand.
Text of news flash
Domestic spot price of soybean oil soared, palm oil and rapeseed oil rose
Last week, the domestic oil market showed an overall upward trend of shock. Soybean oil, as the leading product in the market, stimulatedVideopoker10playThe prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil have risen. Especially soybean oil, the main contract hit a high of 8000 yuan per ton in Friday night trading. However, domestic futures prices deviate from spot fundamentals, and spot prices are mostly the result of passive increases. It is expected that the oil market will remain easy to rise and difficult to fall this week.
By noon on May 17th, the average spot price of coastal first-grade soybean oil was about 8000 yuan / ton. Dalian area is about 7840 yuan / ton, Tianjin and Rizhao area is about 7980 yuan / ton, Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang area is slightly higher, the quotation is 8060 yuan / ton respectively. The quotation in Dongguan is also close, reaching about 8040 yuan / ton.
Soybean production in South America may decline, sowing progress of American beans is slow.
After May Day, the price of the main contract for American beans remained stable at more than 1200 cents, mainly due to adverse weather conditions affecting soybean production in South America and may face a downward adjustment. The progress of sowing new soybeans in the United States has been slow. As of May 12, the sowing completion rate was 35%, down from 45% in the same period last year. In the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, the harvest of soybeans and corn has been slow due to flood damage, with the harvest rate as high as 85%. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also lowered its soybean production forecast for 2023 to 24 to 50.5 million tons, as hot and dry weather in March affected production. Market uncertainty about South American soybean production has led to follow-up price support.
The future price of palm oil in the producing area rose, driven by higher crude oil prices.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices continued to rise last week, mainly affected by the positive impact of external markets. Although palm oil has entered a period of production growth, export demand is weak. Exports of palm oil products fell in the first half of May, according to data released by two independent inspection companies, AmSpec Agri and Intertek Testing Services. However, improved economic data from China and the United States have increased market expectations for demand growth, and the rise in crude oil prices has also contributed to higher palm oil futures.
The base difference of oil and fat continues to decline, and the supply gradually turns loose.
The domestic oil base gap fell further last week, mainly due to poor terminal consumption, futures prices fluctuated in a large range, and spot supply became relatively loose. The base difference of first-class soybean oil in Northeast China has been negative, while the base difference of traders in North China and Shandong is between 09-120-130 and 09-120-160. The base difference of palm oil among traders in North China decreased to 0.9 million 500, while that in East and South China was about 0.9 million 250 and 0.9 million 300, respectively. The base difference of rapeseed oil remained stable, but the overall inventory was sufficient. The bases of Sichuan-Chongqing, East China and South China were 0.9-170-200, 09-170-200 and 09-170-200, respectively.
The analysis predicts that with the increase of soybean arrival in Hong Kong from May to July and the steady increase in the opening rate of factories, the domestic oil spot fundamentals will continue to show a trend of oversupply. The phenomenon of accumulation of soybean oil may be aggravated with the rise of futures prices, and the basis continues to decline. Palm oil is arriving in Hong Kong one after another, and the price difference of soybean palm is gradually returning to rationality. The price of rapeseed oil is high, the transaction is mainly rigid demand, and the supply of rapeseed is sufficient. Market funds fluctuate greatly, so investors are advised to operate cautiously in the current market.